Quarterly review of employment and social developments in Europe (ESDE) Employment exposure to exports to the US - July 2025

In the first quarter of 2025, the EU's real GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.6% year-on-year, and inflation slowed down to 2.4% in April from 2.8% in January. For the rest of the year, GDP growth is projected to stabilise at 1.1%, while inflation is expected to decline to 2.1%. In the labour market, employment remains higher than at the start of 2024, but its growth slowed to 0.4% year-on-year in Ql 2025. Despite this, the employment rate reached a new historical high of 76.1 %. The unemployment remained close to its record low, at 5.9%, with youth unemployment recovering from a slight increase at the beginning of the year. At the same time, labour market participation increased but labour shortages persisted, with high but gradually decreasing job vacancy rates. Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) accelerated significantly by the end of last year, led by employee compensation. Although high for low-income households, financial distress and the reliance on savings and debt have stabilised, following downward trends since Q2 2023. The thematic part of this review focuses on the exposure of EU employment to trade with the US in the context of increased trade uncertainty. Over 5 million people work in jobs dependent on exports to the US, accounting for more than 2% of total EU employment. This review assesses the sectoral and regional exposure of EU labour markets to exports to the US. Manufacturing jobs account for a large share of US export dependent jobs. There are large differences in the degree of trade exposure of different sectors but also regional labour markets, highlighting the need to consider regional aspects of current trade patterns.

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Recurrent analysis - latest update (Excel)